Two hundred eleven days until the presidential election, and the race is just beginning to heat up. The state of the race is volatile in the marquee elections across the country, and ratings have begun to shift. Here’s what’s changed from the last election ratings:
State of the Race: Presidential
Trump
The former President is striding toward the White House as he currently leads in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, according to the 538 average. Trump is leading in 6 out of 7 battleground states except Pennsylvania, where he’s doing by a slim 0.1% (a virtual tie). Time remains to be seen as to whether or not to unify the Republican base, but as of now, the polling reflects a race tilting toward Trump.
Trump is seemingly aware of his lead as he has tried to thread a needle with his position on abortion, where he would “leave it up to the states” in a bid to try and reach out to the base of suburban women he lost overwhelmingly in 2020. Whether he can reach out to suburban women, independents (which he lost overwhelmingly during the Republican primary), and minority voters is another factor that remains to be seen. Still, polling seemingly indicates he is undoubtedly improving among these groups.
President Biden
President Biden is starting at a disadvantage in the ratings. Given the back-and-forth policy regarding Israel that’s turning off a key segment of voters from 18-29, coupled with poor showings in the Wisconsin primary, the Biden campaign has work to do. There is hope for the Biden campaign; Biden and the DNC currently hold a 100 million dollar advantage over the combined cash on hand that the RNC and Trump campaign has. Biden’s cash intake hasn’t been slow, and in March, he raised over 90 million dollars in cash. Biden managed to raise 25 million in a single event with the combined efforts of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
The Biden campaign also has a significant advantage regarding the airtime they have scheduled for October. The campaign seems to be biding its time in the hopes independents and disaffected Democrats will come home towards the end of the campaign. Time remains to be seen as to whether the divide in the Democratic party can be mended in time for the November election.
Maps:
North Carolina is changing in the probability map to Lean Republican.
No tossup map based upon current polling averages and past election trends.
State of the Race: The Senate
The Senate races across the country have been no slouch in drama, and in Montana, a development with the leading GOP candidate can shake up the race.
Tim Sheehy, the leading GOP candidate, is in hot water over a story he has told about a gunshot wound he allegedly received while in Afghanistan. Sheehy sang a different tune in 2015, telling a National Park Service ranger that the wound was accidentally self-inflicted. A vehement denial has followed as Sheehy has admitted to “lying” to the park ranger about the wound to shield his former platoon members. The Tester campaign immediately took the opportunity to frame Sheehy in a negative light. Rating change—> Tossup
Nevada, Ohio, and Texas haven’t changed; their respective ratings have remained static. Let’s see how the coattails of the Presidential race will translate to the marquee senate races across the country.
Montana to Tossup Rating
State of the Race: House
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