One hundred forty-six days until national election day in the United States, and developments have shaken the course of the race since the last ratings. The movement within the polls confirms that these national races are sure to be close. Here’s what’s changed since the last ratings:
State of the Race: Presidential
Trump
The former President’s polling lead in the key swing states has not subsided, and he’s currently leading in all the battleground state polling in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, but after the hush money verdict polls have begun to shift in Biden’s direction.
The Hush Money Verdict
The Former President was found guilty of 32 counts of falsifying business records in a hush money trial involving porn star Stormy Daniels. Former President Trump’s sentencing is scheduled on July 11th at 10 am ET, and his poll numbers have begun to slide after the conviction. In the latest NYT Siena Poll, where a poll of 1,897 registered voters, pre-Trump conviction, he led Biden by 3% in a two-way race as compared to 1% post-Trump conviction. More polls have confirmed the movement toward Biden, and a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 10% of Republicans and 25% of independents are now less likely to vote for Trump. Shaky primary performances have also shown peril for the former President.
Primary Performance
Despite Nikki Haley dropping out in early March of 2024, in the 21 contests that occurred after she withdrew, she still won a staggering 1.3 million votes. This vote sink was powered by weak margins for the former President in places like the Indianapolis and Baltimore suburbs where Haley leveled with him; in both the Maryland and Indiana primary races, she won more than 20% of the vote. A similar phenomenon occurred in swing state North Carolina where despite an overwhelming victory for the former President, he underperformed in the Raleigh suburbs. The Republican primary confirms that former President Trump’s trouble in the 2020 election is bound to replicate itself again.
President Biden
The President is still trailing President Trump despite an evident bump in the polls after the hush money conviction, but recent economic numbers are both a cause for celebration and dismay in a field of despair surrounding news over the Israeli-Palestinian Crisis that has marred Biden’s chances for reelection thus far.
New Economic Numbers
New economic numbers for May 2024 released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the annual rate of inflation slowing slightly from 3.4% in April to 3.3% in the latest report; 272,000 jobs were also added to the US economy, prices also held steady for the first time since July 2022 marking an end to marked price increases that have decreased confidence within the Biden government, but latest polling shows that Biden may still have some cause for concern. Americans still say with an 88% and 85% saying that the economy and inflation are the most important issues in the 2024 election, in which voters favor the former President by more. Interest rates are another bone of contention, and the Fed recently declared that only a singular interest rate cut is coming out of this year, which spells bad news for Biden’s reelection efforts.
Israel and Palestine
The Israeli-Palestine situation has seemingly no signs of slowing despite a collapsing Netanyahu government and a ceasefire rejected by the Biden Government. Despite a greater admonishment by the pro-Palestine crowd toward Biden, a rebuke by the NAACP towards the Biden government’s policy is certainly bad news as it tells the tale of a bad omen towards Biden’s performance among his African American base, which he counts on to win this election. Strategic stops by Vice President Harris in Charlotte and other locations to help drum up support among the African American community to help reverse the general apathy for Biden’s candidacy.
Probability Ratings
Georgia —> Lean Republican
Polls have shown a consistent lead for the former President in Georgia throughout multiple polls and polling averages: the consistent lead combined with a seemingly deflated African American base, which was so pivotal to his victory in 2020, contributed to this rating change.
No Tossup Ratings
Michigan—> Very Slightly Tilt D
The admonishment by the pro-Palestinian wing of the Democratic Party toward Biden greatly helps his odd, combined with a Michigan Republican Party in shambles and the factor of the incumbency, Biden very narrowly leads in Michigan in the no tossup rankings.
State of the Race: Senate
No significant changes have been made to Senate ratings except for moving Virginia into the Solid D category after numerous scandals have plagued GOP candidate Hung Cao, including a charge of misuse of campaign funds by his super PAC, which he has described as a “hit job” by the left. Scandals combined with the strong incumbency factor for current senator Tim Kaine, this race shifts to Solid D in the ratings.
Ratings changes were contemplated in Nevada where Jacky Rosen starts off with a strong advantage over former army veteran Sam Brown. Still, more polls need to be seen out of Nevada to make a significant change.
On the next state of the race, there will be a spotlight on the significant races for the Senate, which include Nevada, Ohio, Montana, and Arizona, as well as a host of other senate seats with their own intricacies and nuances, like in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Virginia —> Solid D
State of the Race: House
Very little has changed for the House except to move MT-01 to Lean R as no strong challenger has emerged to incumbent Ryan Zinke; combined with Presidential year polarization and the coattails that the former President will provide in Montana, this race moves to Lean R.
In the Democrats column, OR-05 is moving to Lean D for Chavez-DeReamer, and for the same reasons, MT-01 is moving to Lean R: Presidential polarization. In NV-03, Susie Lee is a strong incumbent, and no solid challenger has emerged to tackle her strong position coming into 2024.
The ratings changes for the Democrats have moved them just 4 seats from the needed 218 majority to take control of the House, they come into the 2024 election with a slight to moderate advantage in taking back control of the chamber.
MT-01—>Lean R
OR-05 —>Lean D
NV-03—>Lean D
Leave a Reply