One hundred forty-one days until national election day in the United States and the races across the national level are sure to be close. In the House, Senate, and Presidency, polls show deadlocked contests that will influence policy domestically and internationally. Here’s what’s changed since last week’s ratings:
State of the Race: Presidential
President Biden
The President continues to trail former President Trump in the national polling average by 1.1% and is down in the six battleground states that’ll determine the result for the race to 270 electoral votes. For the Biden campaign, there’s reason to dismay and celebrate at recent electoral news.
Special Elections
One piece of hope for the Biden campaign has been special elections. Unlike what polls have been saying, these special elections have often swung leftward of the expected by sometimes large margins. For example, on June 11, the Ohio 6th district special election was conducted with the final result being slightly below 10 points for the Republican challenger. However, in 2020 this district went for Trump by nearly 30 points and the incumbent Republican had gotten much more in his elections before he retired in January. How representative these special elections are to what will occur in November no one knows, but what we do know is that when the elections have actually occurred things have been lefter than the expected, a glimmer of hope for the Biden campaign.
Fundraising
Recent fundraising news is a source of comfort for Biden as he continues to smash Democratic party records for fundraising. A recent star-studded event on Saturday, June 15, raised 30 million breaking the previous record for a democratic fundraiser set by the Biden campaign’s 26 million dollar event set in March. Biden has dominated airspace until now, with an almost 40 million-dollar advantage from March 13 to June 6. However, the Trump cavalry is about to let loose, and the former President is starting to catch up in terms of fundraising.
African American Enthusiasm
This is another seeming gaping hole within the Biden strategy; a key demographic that carried Biden to victory in crucial states seems to be deflated. Following the condemnation by the NAACP described in the last state of the race, polls have continued to reflect a deflated base. Trump continues to harbor numbers in the teens in regard to black voters; the latest Pew Research Center poll shows that Trump is garnering 18% among black voters despite the same poll showing that 72% of black voters think he was “a terrible president.” While 18% may seem minimal, it’s 5% greater than the 13% he garnered in 2020, which could be pivotal in flipping close states like Georgia and Michigan. The Biden campaign seems to be sanguine amongst bad polling numbers, with congressman and co-chair of Biden’s re-election campaign Jim Clyburn essentially brushing off the alarming poll numbers as errors within polling methodologies. Clyburn responded defiantly to polling numbers by stating, “Anybody who believes that Donald Trump will get 30 percent of the Black male vote or 12 percent of the Black female vote — I got a bridge down there on Johns Island I’ll sell you.” Either way, this demographic is one Biden needs to secure if he is to win this campaign.
Second Term Policy
Biden is seeking to drum up support by utilizing the Supreme Court as the representation of his view of the biggest danger posed by a Trump Presidency. Recent comments by Supreme Court Justice Alito about returning the country to “morality” and his view that there cannot be reconciliation between both sides was a big talking point during Biden’s Saturday fundraiser. With the recent news of Justice Thomas’s alleged taking of more vacations paid for by a major GOP donor than he disclosed, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island has launched efforts to try and remove Justice Thomas from his post. The composition of the court will undoubtedly be an issue in this election.
Former President Trump
Former President Trump certainly can take some comfort if polling is to go by as he continues to lead in the national polling averages and swing state polling. News on the electoral front certainly seems also to provide comfort for Trump.
Fundraising
Trump’s post-conviction fundraising numbers seem to help his re-election case. Following his conviction on 34 counts in the New York hush-money case, he raised over 50 million dollars in just 24 hours. Trump also has sent in the cavalry to close the enormous advertisement gap by recently announcing a 100 million dollar advertisement blitz in the critical swing states throughout the summer. Trump is closing the fundraising gap, but Biden still retains a significant advantage.
African American Push
Trump seems to be responding to poll numbers showing an increase in support for his candidacy among African American voters by launching a concerted push to net as many of these voters as he can. This Saturday, right as Joe Biden pushed along his massive Democratic fundraiser, Trump visited a Detroit church to attempt and pierce the advantage that Biden has among black voters. Polling shows he’s doing a couple % of points better than he did in 2020, but it remains to be seen if this is just an error within polling crosstabs or a legitimate presidential realignment.
Realignment
Polling shows that a generational realignment may be underway; polling shows Trump gaining among young voters, especially young males, which the GOP has begun to make a concerted push for. However, this is seemingly being counterbalanced by older voters being driven into the Biden campaign. Older voters seem to be responding to Biden’s expansion of Medicare and reduction of drug prices particularly insulin. This play responds well as new polling shows gains for Biden compared to his margins four years ago. A generational realignment may await us in 2024, but polls are showing a tight race.
Ratings Changes
Ratings have remained the same since last week’s ratings, as there hasn’t been a big development to shake these ratings up.
State of the Race: Senate
The race for the Senate is going to be tight, and there are changes in the ratings as developments have continued to shake up.
Nevada–> Lean D
Jacky Rosen starts off in a strong position, with polling showing she has a strong lead in polling against Sam Brown. This ratings change has been motivated by Rosen’s strength as an incumbent and a comparison to the 2022 midterms. Rosen is facing a weaker challenger in Sam Brown than the weaker Senator Catherine Cortez Masto faced in Adam Laxalt, and given Rosen’s strength as an incumbent coupled with a strong fundraising advantage, this Nevada Senate race is lean democrat.
Race Spotlight: Ohio
Sherrod Brown begins with a strong advantage bordering on lean Democrat; the latest Marist poll shows that Brown holds a 5% advantage against Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Brown also holds a strong advantage in favorability ratings, and given the strong divergence between President Biden’s popularity in Ohio and Senator Brown’s, Sherrod Brown starts with an advantage that’s bordering lean democratic. It remains to be seen if he can pull out margins that previous contender Tim Ryan failed to pull out in white working-class areas like Mahoning County and pull off a victory during a presidential wave year.
Race Spotlight: Montana
Senator Jon Tester begins with a slight disadvantage, given the heavy partisanship of Montana in a Presidential Election year. The coattails that Trump will provide at the top of the ticket give Tester an uphill battle for re-election, but there may be cause for celebration. Recent missteps by Republican candidate Tim Sheehy in a particularly embarrassing incident involving a gunshot wound he claimed to have received while fighting in Afghanistan, coupled with strong personal popularity in Montana, Tester remains in the hunt in Montana, but in the nonprobability ratings, the race remains slightly Tilt Republican.
State of The Race: House of Representatives
The ratings from last week have not changed, and brand-new nonprobability house ratings have dropped! See below!
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