A Preface: This article was originally written on Monday, July 8th. Given the editor-in-chief’s dissatisfaction with the quality it was originally released in, this article is a repost with an extension from the Monday article.
One hundred nineteen days until national election day here in the United States, and this state of the race may be the most consequential yet. The polls for Biden have been in free fall after a devastating debate performance by all metrics: Biden has sunk in the latest national polling, and many Democrats have declared open revolt against his candidacy, including Senator Mark Warner from the battleground state of Virginia. Normally, this would be following off the cusp of last week’s article, but given the seismic shift that occurred during the 2024 Presidential Debate, last week’s state of the race was postponed to allow time for the barometer to fully tell the weight of the debate would have on the Presidential election. In this week’s State of the Race, we’re solely looking at the presidency, given the Shakespearian events that have occurred over the last week and a half that have drastically move from our last ratings.
Biden: An Unbridled Disaster
There seems to be a denial in the Biden campaign of the weight of the debate upon the race: advisors and many Democrats sat in shock as they saw a Biden that hadn’t been seen before. Biden looked gaunt and frail: Donald Trump performed his usual routine, as he has done a million times, but Biden looked uncharacteristically off. Following the performance, damage control was immediately initiated. The White House gamble to force a debate and reassure voters that Biden was fit to do the job failed: one could argue that the aftermath was even more seismic. Biden dragged his feet and avoided Democrat leaders for days after the debate and as more advisors have seemed to jump ship and call Biden into question, the President has retreated into himself and his close circle of advisors and family. Over the last week and a half, Jill Biden has led the charge in denying claims that Biden was not in the mental condition to continue as President of the United States. Biden continues to deny charges that he is mentally unfit to be President, but the effects have set in.
In the national 538 average and swing state polling, Biden has seen a decrease in his numbers since June 27th, and this has led high-ranking democrats like Jaime Raskin to question whether Biden has the fitness to beat Donald Trump in November. This marked decrease in the polls has, in no small part, been because of friendly media beginning to turn against his case. Biden has been under microscopic scrutiny by media allies like MSNBC; the President remains obstinate and has reaffirmed just this morning that he intends to stay in the race. However, this has not stopped media coverage of potential replacements. This sentiment was not quelled by the televised ABC News interview that President Biden gave with George Stephanopoulos. The ABC News interview may have served to compound fears of Democrats over Biden’s inability to understand the situation: when asked, the President stated that he would feel comfortable if Donald Trump was in the White House in January even if he lost if he “did his best.” News continues to get from bad to worse for the White House, as local radio station news hosts confirmed that an interview given locally in Wisconsin was made with questions pre-approved by the White House. To add another layer of tragedy, the New York Times reported today that a Parkinson’s expert visited the White House eight times in the last eight months. An upcoming press conference is Biden’s chance to prove to the American people he is fit for office, but given the level of scrutiny he is under, Biden’s campaign may be doomed.
Trump: Rise with a Hitch
As of now, Trump stands firm in the race, and with a July 15th announcement of his Vice Presidential pick, his rise seems meteoric, but there’s a hitch. While the media has been hitting Biden for issues related to his mental acuity, Trump has gained his fair share of criticism. While Biden’s dismaying performance has been the focus, Trump did not have a solid performance. News outlets have pointed to the numerous lies and inaccuracies that he spewed, but that’s not the most concerning thing Trump has to worry about; it’s Project 2025. Project 2025, a plan drafted by the Heritage Foundation, has been the media’s fixation and a serious hitch in the Trump rise.
The Project lays out the plans for the next conservative administration, and within it lay radical provisions like the firing of 20,000 civil servants and replacing them with loyalists and dismantling the Education Department. This plan is very out of lockstep with the average American’s political views and is proving to be a liability for Trump. Trump has moved to neutralize the threat by declaring he doesn’t know anything about the Project and disavowing it. This sentiment has been contradicted by statements Trump made at a speech at the Heritage Foundation declaring open support for the organization. This debacle with the Heritage Foundation is proving to be a liability for the Trump campaign, but as of now, Trump is leading and poised to win strongly in the electoral college.
Probability Ratings Changes:
Given the dire events that have rocked the Biden circle in recent days, ratings reflect the absolute peril that Biden is in.
Florida, Texas, and Ohio –> Solid Republican
These rating changes are self-explanatory; Trump is bound to win these states by more than 10% in each as of today. Polls show that in each of these states, the disparity between Trump and Biden is increasingly large, and given the state that Democrats are currently in, these states are safely in the Trump column.
Virginia Solid D –> Lean D
Biden’s weakness in Virginia has been reflected in the latest polling data; in this D+10 state, Biden is poised to have a much worse showing if the election were held today in Virginia. Senator Mark Warner is leading a senate effort to oust the President as the nominee. Warner is specifically concerned that he cannot win Virginia. As of now, the race in Virginia is lean Democratic.
Minnesota Solid D –> Lean D
Another state thought to be in the safe Biden column is wavering based on some internal polls and third-party candidate Robert Kennedy’s effect on the ballot. Minnesota is known to be very friendly towards third-party candidates, and RFK’s presence is concerning for the Biden campaign. To add to the dilemma, representative Angie Craig from Minnesota’s only competitive House seat has called on Biden to step down. Biden still holds the advantage, but it’ll be a close night in Minnesota as of today.
New Hampshire Solid D–> Lean D
A state Trump has called “a drug den” is another state on a knife’s edge as recent polls like the reputable Saint Anselm Polling Division are showing a 2% spread in Trump’s favor. The Democratic lean of the state will ultimately prevail the state for Biden by a slight lean margin, but it’s undoubtedly that this race has significantly tightened.
Arizona Tossup –> Lean R
The Cook Political Ratings are moving Arizona to Lean Republican, and our ratings are doing the same. Polls have been very steadily consistent, and the 538 Arizona polling averages show a 4.5% lead on average. Not a single poll in recent days has shown Biden up; thus, we at BridgeOfWills feel comfortable moving it to Lean Republican.
Pennsylvania –> Lean Republican
The lead for Trump has been consistent, and while this is a controversial rating change, we feel comfortable with moving Pennsylvania from a tossup to Lean Republican. The 538 polling average shows Trump with a 3.4% lead on average within the state, and given the absolute disarray that Democrats are in, Pennsylvania is Lean Republican.
No Tossup Ratings Major Changes:
Wisconsin –> Tilt Republican
This is a major change; polling shows that across the state, Biden is behind Trump on average, and the current Wisconsin local interview scandal is certainly hurting him here. We at Bridge feel comfortable moving Wisconsin from Tilt D in our last State of the Race to Tilt R in this one.
Michigan –> Tilt Republican
Another major change is polling shows a tight race in Michigan within the margin of error but given the situation and the latest influx of polling from reputable firms like Emerson showing Trump ever so slightly ahead, we feel comfortable with giving the former President the edge in this state.
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