J.D. Vance, the 39-year-old junior senator from Ohio and self-proclaimed “anti-Trumper” turned loyalist, has been selected as Donald Trump’s running mate. Trump made the announcement yesterday amidst fanfare and a fair share of drama, but who is JD Vance, and what does he represent for Donald Trump?
JD Vance’s Beginning
The junior senator from Ohio, elected in a closer-than-expected senate race during the 2022 election cycle, is a Trump critic turned staunch ally. Vance was born originally as James Donald Bowman from a poor rural upbringing and a complicated family dynamic that left him fatherless as a toddler; his mother also struggled with a severe opioid addiction that left his care in the hands of his maternal grandparents. Vance would recall favorably the experience he had with his “mawmaw and papaw.” Shortly after high school, Vance enlisted in the army, serving four years as a combat correspondent, during which he escorted civilian press, gathered information, and wrote articles for a military news service. After serving in the military, Vance attended Ohio State University and later Yale Law School, where he was an editor for The Yale Law Journal. Vance then started to gain footing by testing the waters of politics and law by clerking for Judge David Bunning of Ohio and working for Senator John Cornyn of Texas. He then explored venture capital, working as a principal at Silicon Valley superstar Peter Theil between 2016 and 2017, but Vance’s true claim to fame would come.
Hillbilly Elegy
In 2016, Penguin published Vance’s memoir, Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family In Culture in Crisis; of course, a memoir for a man aged 30. The author himself notes this comical self-awareness in the opening crawl of the book, stating,” I find the existence of the book you hold in your hand somewhat absurd. It says right there on the cover that it’s a memoir, but I’m thirty years old, and I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve accomplished nothing great with my life.” This book documents Vance’s troubled childhood and touches upon the nascent political issues at the time; Vance’s childhood and struggles with insecurity are challenges faced by so many millions of working-class white Americans. These Americans were blue-collar, blue-dog Democrats who had not voted Republican a single time save for President Reagan. Policies of free trade, which arguably shifted their jobs overseas, created a sense of “being forgotten,” a sense JD Vance struck a chord with. This book shot Vance up into stardom as it hit the New York Times best-seller list in both 2016 and 2017 as people flocked to its testimonial of a “culture in decline” and a portrait of the type of American that shot Donald Trump straight into the White House.
Given Hillbilly Elegy’s portrait, you’d expect Vance to be heavily on the Trump train, but that was not the case. Vance had particularly stinging words for Trump, likening him to “America’s Hitler” and another “opioid” for white America, adding a profoundly personal touch given his mother’s struggle with addiction. His wife, Usha Vance, an Indian American with a long history of voting in Democratic Primaries, also had particularly scathing words for Trump, likening him to a cultural “demagogue.” With this staunch opinion on Donald Trump, you’d expect Vance to vehemently oppose being on the Trump ticket or even being near Trump at all, but the allure of politics was simply too much for him to resist taking a much softer tone on the then President. Vance did a complete 180 and changed opinions on Trump rapidly. He was quick to profusely apologize for his prior comments and attribute them to a “disagreement in Trump’s style.” Vance would also claim that Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court was also another reason as to why he had a change of heart on Trump, given his wife’s prior history with Kavanaugh. The softening would reach the stage of complete deference to Trump when he would go on to defend Trump for January 6th and rebuke Pence’s denial to back Trump’s “big lie.” Of course, this submission would come as Vance sought election to Ohio’s open senate seat after the retirement of Senator Rob Portman.
2022 Senate Run and Vance’s Controversial Positioning
Vance’s tack to the hard right would earn Trump’s critical endorsement in the Ohio Senate Race and a start to prime him for a potential Vice Presidential slot. Vance supported many of the now mainstream Republican planks like a 15-week abortion ban at the national level, a termination to funding Ukraine’s effort to stop Russia, election denial, including a statement that he would not have certified the 2020 election for Joe Biden, and high tariffs on China.
With Trump’s backing combined with the conservative tilt of Ohio, he won a victory over Democrat Tim Ryan and was cemented as a rising star in the party, but this wouldn’t be what gained Trump’s grace. Vance made an unlikely friendship with Trump’s son, Don Jr, and through this connection, one last push by Don Jr. persuaded Trump to make Vance his number two and thus cement his role as the standard bearer of Trumpism after Trump is likely to complete a second term. Vance, however, also has strong electoral implications as the State of the Race forecast changes in the No Tossup Ratings.
No Tossup Ratings
Presidential
Minnesota Lean Democratic–> Tilt Democratic
Minnesota has become a close shave as even Democratic leaders inside the state concede that Trump is gaining serious ground. Now, after the assassination attempt and all the other political news, Trump is getting closer and closer to becoming the first Republican to win in Minnesota since President Nixon in 1972. JD Vance also helps change the dynamic in Minnesota, while not helping in suburban and city areas; Vance’s story will help supercharge the rural turnout, and combined with apathy for the Democratic ticket, Minnesota becomes competitive.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania Tilt Democrat –> Lean Republican
This rating change is a natural continuation of our Minnesota ranking, given JD Vance’s credentials among white working-class voters and the absolutely dire situation that the Biden campaign is in as the race becomes increasingly hopeless as Biden still tries to quell internal rebellion inside of his party. These rating changes are all but appropriate. The trio of states that made Biden President of the United States in 2020 are now set to swing back to Donald Trump in a significant fashion, thus ensuring him an electoral mandate.
Senate
Ohio Tilt Democratic –> Tilt Republican
This senate rating change now shows Senator Sherrod Brown losing to his Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno. This change is all but natural as Trump has included an Ohio native on the ticket and thus is set to ensure a larger margin for Trump in a state that voted for him heavily in 2016 and 2020. Brown is still popular within the state, but given the tides of partisanship and the inclusion of an Ohio native on the VP slot of the Republican ticket, Brown is set to lose his Ohio Senate Race.
Montana Tilt Republican –> Lean Republican
Given the tides of politics and the state of the race across the country, Jon Tester is simply in too deep a fight to win this election against Republican Tim Sheehy. Like Brown, he is very popular with constituents. Still, with the large coattails a Trump victory will have in Montana, Tester is set to lose the Montana Senate Race and give Republicans a majority.
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