Eighty-four days until election day and the momentum is clearly swinging in one way: and it’s certainly not Donald Trump’s. The enthusiasm for the Harris campaign is palpable as all the polls show a race swinging clearly in one direction. After the announcement of Governor Walz as her VP and a battleground state tour that took her across America’s most critical seven battlegrounds where she amassed massive crowds, the polls have responded to this dramatic swing by not only aiding the Presidential ticket but races all across the country in the Senate, House, and Governorship. However, caution is certainly warranted, as 84 days in politics is an eternity. If the events of the last month have demonstrated the notion that politics is rapidly oscillating, and while this race is clearly leaning towards Harris, that can change in an instant. With that in mind, let’s see how the State of the Race has changed since Harris announced her VP pick last week:
Kamala Harris
Battleground and Polling Swing
On Tuesday in Philadelphia, Kamala Harris began a battleground state tour by announcing her VP in the keystone state of Pennsylvania. After an electrifying rally in Philadelphia, she followed that with an intense day on August 7th in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and Detroit, Michigan. These two rallies had a combined attendance of 27,000 people. In Glendale, Arizona, she drew a crowd of 20,000 in 105-degree scorching heat, breaking all attendance records in the history of Arizona politics. In Las Vegas, Harris saw much of the same attendance. In this early swing for the Harris campaign pre-convention, the mark in tone is starkly different than that of the Biden campaign. While the Biden campaign focused upon the “danger” that Trump would bring to America and American Democracy, running an existentialist message hoping that Democrats and Independents would begrudgingly vote for the ticket, Harris seems to be running a message that’s very different to this. Harris seems to frame the danger not in an existentialist manner but rather mockingly by calling Trump, specifically JD Vance, “weird.” This line of attack pioneered by Governor Walz seems to be the favorite in the suite of attacks being launched against the Republican ticket.
The positive message being run by Harris, honing in on personal experience and qualities, while Tim Walz picks up the slack of attacking Trump in a “jovial” way that has drawn comparisons to Vice President Hubert Humphrey, is ticking up polling numbers in a dramatic way. In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the new NYT/Sienna polls show a uniform 4% lead for Harris across the three critical battleground states. Even before the disastrous debate performance by President Biden, he lagged in Michigan and Pennsylvania and tied in Wisconsin. The average also painted a sobering picture for the Democrats. Now, Harris leads in the 538 polling average in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. She’s currently tied, if slightly behind, in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and polling data is currently beginning to look up for her in North Carolina. Time will tell if this momentum holds.
Ceasefire?
Even as Harris’s rallies seemed to go well, she had a verbal misstep in Michigan. The Israeli-Palestine issue continues to drag upon Democrats, and that was on full display in her Detroit, Michigan, rally. While giving her regularly programmed speech, protestors heckled her for the Biden administration’s policy of support for Israel. Seemingly mad about the presence of the protestors, she responded, “I’m here because we believe in democracy. Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now.” She continued and retorted, “If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.” This misstep angered the likes of Palestinian leaders who have vowed to show up in massive numbers at the Democratic Convention to protest, drawing eerie parallels to the Democrat’s fraught 1968 Democratic convention.
The Michigan response was acknowledged, and when faced with a similar situation in Glendale, Arizona, she played the crowd by providing a vastly different response. Instead of the fierce retort, she delivered a softer response to try and appeal to that segment of the base: “I have been clear: now is the time to get a ceasefire deal and get the hostage deal done.” “Now is the time. And the President and I are working around the clock every day to get that ceasefire deal done and bring the hostages home. So, I respect your voices, but we are here to now talk about this race in 2024.”
Donald Trump
Campaign Slowdown?
After the swing by the Harris campaign and her improving polling numbers, you’d think that Trump would be out on the trail counteracting the gains, but he simply isn’t. Besides a scheduled campaign stop in Montana, he states he’s simply biding his time as he awaits the aftermath of the Democrats’ Chicago Convention. However, this is a departure from what Trump historically has done. In August 2016, Trump had a much tighter schedule than in his 2024 campaign run, and now, Trump is spending the bulk of his time at his golf resort in Mar A Lago shooting balls. In addition, in a bizarre rant in the early hours of the morning, he claimed that Harris’s campaign attendance was “fake” and “staged” and that Harris copied him for taking his stance on no taxes on tips for service workers. In his stead, JD Vance had been sent on the attack, making the rounds on Sunday shows defending his claims that parents should have extra votes,” among many other claims.
The worsening situation for the Trump campaign, acknowledged by insiders inside the operation, has been augmented by a series of bad press attracted by JD Vance.
JD Vance Disaster
JD Vance has been in a series of negative press over the last few weeks. Since Bridge of Wills wrote about his worsening situation a few State of the Race ago, the situation has continued to augment itself in its severity. In a particularly odd moment, when asked by a Fox News Reporter, “What makes you smile?” he responded, “Well, I smile at a lot of things like bogus questions from the media.” He then continued on an off-tangent that ended with his usual praise of the former President; the oddity continued when he arrived at a similar time to the Vice President’s preceding her rally; he appeared to approach the Vice President’s plane on the tarmac looking for a standoff which he later brushed off to reporters as just simply looking at his future plane.
The Sunday morning press round was continued by a fierce conversation with CNN reporter Dana Bash when she repeatedly questioned Vance’s positioning over his “childish cat lady” quote; Vance snapped at the line of questioning and stated, “You’ve now asked me three questions about comments that I made three years ago,” Vance said. “I wonder what Kamala Harris thinks about the fact that she supported policies that opened the American southern border. I wonder what Kamala Harris thinks about the fact that she lied to the American people about Joe Biden’s mental facility for the office.” With Vance’s favorability down across the board, according to 538, the worsening press for Vance is serving to harm the Republican ticket.
Ratings Change
Probability Ratings Change
North Carolina Lean Republican–> Tossup
The momentum of the Harris campaign across the critical seven battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia has shown across the board. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has already made the leap to declare that Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are tossups, and we at Bridge of Wills feel comfortable with moving North Carolina to a tossup. This is not to say that Trump doesn’t maintain a lead, but the momentum being seen across America for Harris has dramatically changed the polling numbers, including North Carolina, with the latest polls showing an increasingly tight race in the state. Thus, North Carolina moves to Tossup.
Non-Probability Ratings Change
Arizona Tilt Republican –> Tilt Democrat
The movement is being seen in Arizona, and polling numbers coming out of the state show a race dramatically changed from where it was with President Biden. The enthusiasm seen on the ground for Harris in Arizona, the down-ballot race where Congressman Ruben Gallego is facing a defeated unpopular candidate in Kari Lake, and polling numbers (including a Republican internal) showing a basically tied race. With the momentum and everything occurring with the Republican ticket, Arizona moves to tilt Democratic. This rating is odd compared to Nevada’s remaining Tilt Republican, but polls have shown a greater Republican lean within Nevada. Thus, this is the only state that has moved within our ratings as of now.
Senate Ratings
Race Spotlight: Ohio
It is a race that should be a wash for Republicans at the top of the ticket, but it is not. In new polling, incumbent Sherrod Brown is polling ahead of his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno by 4% in the latest round of polling, and Brown maintains a heavy lead in the realclearpolling average of 5%. Brown has been a staple within his state with a history of heavy electoral victories and with Republican Bernie Moreno making a series of missteps on the trail and a resurfacing of a wage theft scandal where he recruited a general manager from Virginia to sell Porches in Moreno’s dealership and allegedly failed to pay the general manager his promised package: the baggage on Moreno is particularly noteworthy in state where labor has such a significant impact on politics.
Race Spotlight: Montana
This is sure to be one of the closest races in America, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester is facing one of toughest battles yet. Tim Sheehy, his Republican opponent, has pledged his support for President Trump and is banking heavily on Trump’s down-ballot effects to carry him across the finish line in Montana. In his own right, Sheehy is much less scandal-prone than other Republicans across the country, like Bernie Moreno or Kari Lake in Arizona, but new articles trickling out over the success of Sheehy’s business are being released. Bridger, Moreno’s company, reported losing 119 million in net losses in 2022 and 2023 as Moreno was generously compensated despite this. This discrepancy in what he portrays himself as and the actual record may serve to hurt him on the trail, but the latest Emerson (a highly reputable poll) numbers show that he leads Testor by 2% or within the margin of error. The ticket-splitting in Montana is sure to be strong as Testor maintains favorable approval ratings.
Race Spotlight: Michigan
Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is facing Republican Mike Rogers in the open Senate seat being vacated by Senator Debbie Stabenow. The latest round of NYT/Siena polls show a tight 3% race between Slotkin and Rogers, a stark difference between other Democratic counterparts in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, leading by large margins. This can be attributed to the close race at the top of the ticket in Michigan, but more broadly, it can be attributed to the fact that there is an open vacancy that always means more competition in the race. Recently, the houses of both Slotkin and Rogers were swatted; the swatting drew wide condemnation from across the aisle.
Ratings Change
Ohio Tilt Republican –> Lean Democrat
This race is not budging, and Sherrod Brown is showing a consistent lead in the polls against Bernie Moreno. Brown’s popularity, combined with the sheer momentum happening at the top of the ticket with Harris, aids his campaign’s case, as shown in the latest round of polling. Therefore, Sherrod Brown will pull off his race, and current Bridge of Wills estimates say he’ll win it rather comfortably by 2.3-2.5%.
Montana Lean Republican –> Tilt Republican
This race is another that is benefiting from the change at the top of the ticket. The latest Emerson poll shows Trump ahead of Harris by 15% in Montana, a decrease in his margin from both 2016 and 2020. Testor remains slightly behind. It is by our estimate that if Harris’ momentum continues and she does 2-3% better in Montana, Tester can most likely pull out the race and help the Democrats maintain control of the Senate. However, in the current political climate, Testor narrowly loses his race by less than 1%, according to our estimates.
Michigan Likely Democrat–> Lean Democrat
This is a race for Democrats in the lean category bordering likely, but the latest polls show a tight shave. However, the momentum at the top of the ticket combined with Michigan’s blue lean at the Senatorial level will propel Slotkin to a victory by a 4.5% estimate made by our Bridge of Wills team.
Governor
New Hampshire
Polling in New Hampshire has been scarce as the primary has yet to occur, but between the likely matchup of former US Senator Kelly Ayotte and chair of the Manchester School Board Joyce Craig, Ayotte holds the lead. Ayotte has the advantage of being a former US Senator, despite her being defeated by just 0.2% in 2016 by popular governor Maggie Hassan, and the other advantage of being endorsed by governor and powerhouse Chris Sununu, who enjoys a high approval rating. Ayotte is pursuing the line of attack of Craig, trying to go to Massachusetts, New Hampshire, in an attempt to tie Craig to Massachusetts liberalism, which is somewhat unpopular in the traditionally “liberterianesque” state of New Hampshire. This race remains Lean Republican.
North Carolina
This is the hottest race in the governorship, so hot in fact that Roy Cooper demanded his name be taken off Harris’ VP shortlist because he wanted to focus on the internal drama happening because of this race. Lt. Governor Mark Robinson is running a controversial race against North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein. Robinson has made a series of bizarre remarks where he states that some folks just need to be killed, and a serially hardline position of abortion that includes no exceptions for abortion, favoring a hardline 6-week policy and national abortion ban. From what little polling has come out, Josh Stein holds a commanding lead over Robinson as he has been trying to pivot more towards the center. This race is being moved to Likely Democratic from our initial Lean Democrat early on in the summer.
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