One hundred thirty-four days until national election day in the United States and the races across the national level are beginning to head to climax. Numerous races and rating changes have been made from last week’s ratings. Here’s what changed:
State of the Race: Presidential
President Biden
The President is beginning to see some positive movement toward his column in the national polling, with various polls by Fox News, YouGov, and The Morning Consult showing a very slight advantage for him. With this new polling influx, Biden has taken the lead in the 538 polling average for the first time and remains competitive in the real clear polling average. With the potentially definitive June 27th debate happening this week, Biden has events to look forward to despite bad news that has marred his candidacy thus far.
The Debate
The Biden campaign is taking the June 27th debate very seriously; President Biden arrived in Camp David on Thursday to apparently “hunker down” with allies for a regimented debate prep. Ron Klein, the President’s former Chief of Staff, is heading the debate effort, and while sparing no detail about the actual substance that they’re prepping for, the general consensus is that the Biden campaign is trying to portray Biden as the wise, experienced and steady leader as compared to the “wild” and “unstable” leader that Trump portrays. The stakes are high for the Biden campaign as they also seek to rebuke a prevalent sentiment among voters about Biden’s “poor” mental acuity: this claim has been advanced by Republican strategists by their use of video clips that show Biden as both lost and confused. The Biden campaign understands the weight of this sentiment and is trying hard to combat it by denouncing the video clips as “out of context” and in bad faith; as for the voters, the Biden campaign is sending Biden on the attack against Trump even as far as preparing to use the term “convicted felon” to describe the former President in an attempt to show mental agility on the part of the President. Biden has the added advantage of luring Trump to debate on his terms, meaning the microphone muted after 2 minutes, no debate audience, and no opening statements. President Trump is even beginning to hint toward a slight decrease in expectations for his performance.
Israel Palestine
As Napoleon Bonaparte described the conflict in Spain as an “ulcer,” this issue seems to be that for President Biden. Recent news details show how the sentiment among Congressional Democrats for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s slated July 24th speech is a mass boycott in mass “anti-war” solidarity. More news of actions documented as “war crimes” have been released and thus continuing to anger the youth population that’s heavily Palestine supportive: the Biden administration has vacillated between supporting Israel, as they just have assuring the Israeli government full support in the event of a hypothetical full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah: this action followed by an authorization of F-15 jets to Israel. Biden’s war policy in the State Department is bound to change as Israel-Palestine affairs Andrew Miller resigned citing family issues, but Miller himself has been critical of Biden’s war strategy. The vacillations in Biden’s war strategy are sure to have a huge effect on the Presidential race.
Former President Trump
Despite a worsened state in the national polling, Trump still holds an advantage in crucial swing state polling in all the seven critical swing states. While Trump is slightly behind in the 538 polling average, he remains very slightly ahead in the real clear polling average. Trump certainly has much to look forward to as he comes close to erasing Biden’s fundraising advantage and a debate performance that can confirm voters’ worst fears about Biden.
The Debate
Trump is taking the debate with his usual bravado. Instead of choosing to perform hardcore prep, he’s hitting the campaign trail to mock Biden for his comparatively hardcore preparation by accusing him of planning to use “drugs” to “jack up” his debate performance. This criticism is not dissimilar to accusations by Republicans for a much better than expected Biden State of the Union performance, but this also may serve to lower expectations for President Trump. On Thursday, Trump said in a podcast episode that Biden was a “worthy debater,” citing his particularly strong performance in his 2012 Vice Presidential Debate against then-House Representative Paul Ryan. The drug accusations and Trump’s unusual praise of Biden may be an attempt to lower expectations for Trump’s performance, which allies view as crucial for him in this election. Republican allies have cited the importance of the debate as helping to sway moderates who may think Trump is too “unstable” to be President again. These allies view the June 27th debate as a chance to show a calmer side of Trump and hope to play upon the usually gaffe-prone Biden.
Vice Presidential Pick
The choice for the Vice Presidency has intensified as Trump has declared he has “made up his mind” about who will pick for the No. 2 slot. This pick comes amid months of speculation and anticipation as to who the former President would decide on: the list has been wide-ranging, from Senator Tim Scott, Ambassador Nikki Haley, and a GOP donor favorite, Glenn Youngkin, the shortlist has been narrowed to four candidates. A recent NBC News report shows that this four-man shortlist has been narrowed to Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Senator Tim Scott. Each of these has its own geographical and demographic plays: Burgum is a clear shot to the middle by Donald Trump in an attempt to encompass these voters into his winning coalition, Vance is a play to his populist base and the pivotal states up in the industrial midwest states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Rubio a play towards Hispanic voters in the critical southwestern states of Nevada, Arizona and Texas, and Scott a long shot play towards African American voters which some polling suggests Trump doing better in. A public announcement by Trump is bound to happen at the GOP convention in July or closely behind it, but anticipation for the VP pick is high.
Probability Ratings Change: Nevada Tossup→ Lean Republican
Polls have shown a consistent lead for Trump in Nevada, combined with a rightward trend in Clark County and evident worry by Democrats of Robert Kennedy’s candidacy shown by a lawsuit filed by Nevada Democrats in an attempt to keep him off the ballot shows that this state is very favorable towards Trump at the moment. Polling shows a steady lead of 3-5% for Trump. Thus, Nevada moves to lean Republican.
No Tossup Ratings Change: Pennsylvania Tilt D→ Tilt R
This puts Trump ahead and above the 270 electoral threshold in the no tossup ratings change, recent polling by very reputable firms like Emerson and Marist both put Trump ahead by 2%. This, combined with a consistent polling lead by Trump in Pennsylvania and the narrowing fundraising advantage, currently gives Trump Pennsylvania and, thus, the whole election.
State of the Race: Senate
Race Spotlight: Wisconsin
This race starts in the Democratic column but analyzing it is interesting nonetheless, incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin is seeking another term in the US Senate: Baldwin is somewhat of a star within the Democratic party and starts off with a strong fundraising advantage against her GOP competitor Eric Hovde, Hovde is a real estate mogul with the backing of the national Republican Party and Donald Trump. While Baldwin can provide comfort from previously big wins in the State of Wisconsin, a new Emerson poll shows Baldwin ahead of Hovde by just 3%. While this is one poll and this race remains in the Democratic column, unexpected warning signs may flash in Wisconsin as the race gets closer to November.
Race Spotlight: Pennsylvania
Senator Bob Casey starts off with a strong advantage against businessman Dave McCormick. The Casey legacy in Pennsylvania is strong, and the polling reflects the goodwill voters still have for Senator Casey. While national Republicans are focusing the firepower of the Republican machine in other more critical races like Ohio and Montana, national Republicans still remain somewhat hopeful with McCormick. This is McCormick’s second go-around for the Senate race after an extremely narrow loss in the Republican primary to Dr. Oz, who went on to lose the general election by a large 5% point during a presidential midterm and an open seat. Undoubtedly, McCormick had much better chances of victory in the 2022 cycle, but he should not be discounted yet.
No Ratings Changes from Last Week
State of the Race: House of Representatives
This State of the Race isn’t just focusing on the competitive seats but a battle for the ideological composition inside of the Republican Party.
Virginia 5th Congressional District:
This race has been a saga that reveals a growing dissatisfaction of the far right towards President Donald Trump. Freedom Caucus member and far-right sweetheart Bob Good is locked in a tight race against former Navy Seal John McGuire; McGuire is comparatively moderate to Good’s hard-right policies. Good had the backing of the Freedom Caucus and the right-wing faction of the Republican Primary, but McGuire was able to maneuver the endorsement of President Trump to the dismay of the Freedom Caucus. Members of this faction brooded as they feel that Trump has been “compromised” by the “deep state” due to the advisors he surrounds himself with; their grievance doesn’t just lie in this race alone; Trump’s endorsement of “moderate” candidates in Republican primaries across the country has spurred upon great disaffection among the hard right. McGuire currently leads Good by an extremely narrow 0.6% with more than 95% of the vote. While McGuire declared victory, Good didn’t give up and vowed to investigate the election process and fight on.
Competitive Races: Pennsylvania
7th Congressional District
Representative Susan Wild is locked in a race against GOP Candidate Ryan Mackenzie; Wild has served in a variety of high-ranking positions during her tenure in the house, and after a close and somewhat unexpected victory during the 2022 midterm election, she’s fighting another tough race again. Mackenzie has tacked to the right on numerous issues except for support for IVF and other fertility treatments, a marked contrast to some positions within his own party’s Republican primary.
8th Congressional District
According to Cook Political Report Ratings, representative Matt Cartwright is locked in his tight race against Republican Candidate Robert Bresnahan. This race is following off the heels of a tight 2.4% victory in the 2022 midterms. This race represents a marquee race in the race for the House of Representatives; Bresnahan has been marked by strong support for fossil fuel industries and his other positions, which tack to the right of the spectrum. Cartwright is portraying Bresnahan as a far-right extremist.
No ratings changes from last week.
State of the Race: Governor
Ratings are now live on the website’s State of the Race page!
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