Bridge of Wills

97 days away from election day, and to say that the State of the Race is different from our last update two weeks ago is an understatement. Everything since President Biden’s dramatic exit from the race has rendered every prediction and forecast moot, and the fundamental political gravity has shifted. The gravity, which all but said that Trump was coasting to a victory and Republicans’ prospects down-ballot bolstered in the face of Democratic disunity, has all but vanished. Now, the national race couldn’t be any closer. This 10.0 magnitude political earthquake will go down in the history books, and every day from now to election day, we can be sure that we’re making history. Let’s see how the Presidential ratings (Senate, Governors, and House Ratings dropping Friday) have changed since our last State of the Race:

Kamala Harris: The New Democratic Nominee

Unity

Joe Biden exited the race on July 21st at 1:46 pm, and within hours, the democratic machine lifted Kamala Harris. The rise of Harris can not be understated, and for many Democrats, it was like seeing the sun for the first time after bleak darkness and hopelessness seemed to doom them in the face of the Trump advance. Millions of Democrats across the country responded to the surge of hope by raising more than 80 million dollars in the span of just 24 hours, breaking all records. The sum is undoubtedly staggering, but what is almost more so is that 888,000 grassroots donors contributed; of those contributors, 60% were first-time contributors. In the first campaign week, Harris’ campaign was able to sign up more than 170,000 volunteers to man the phone banks.

Her record-breaking didn’t end with the amount of money raised and volunteers signed up, but how fast she earned the nomination. By Monday, July 22nd, the day after Biden had dropped out, Harris had gained the support of 27 state delegations, meaning she had more than enough delegates to be easily nominated as the Democratic candidate. On the ground, Harris has had record-breaking events, such as a “white woman for Harris event on Zoom, where nearly 200,000 people joined the event, breaking all records for the number of people in a single Zoom meeting. Harris’ most important endorsement came from the powerbroker of the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, last Friday after days of Republican attack after attack over Obama’s seeming silence in support of her candidacy. Polling shows that this quick consolidation in support for her has impacted her favorability ratings. Where before she entered the Presidential race, she was underwater by 11%; now, a week after her entry, she is not favorable by 1%, where 43% see her favorably and 42% see her unfavorably. It’s hard to say how long Vice President Harris’ honeymoon is going to last, but at this rate, her prospects for the White House are very much boosted.

Veepstakes

Since posting “Veepstakes” on July 23rd, the VP shortlist has been narrowed to three men, with the selection now and various sources confirming that Harris will make her final decision next week ahead of a battleground state tour where she will debut her Vice President. Harris is running on a time clock as ballot deadlines approach on August 7th; thus, her VP shortlist has been narrowed. The VP shortlist has been narrowed to three men after candidates like Roy Cooper, who dropped out of consideration to focus on his state’s internal politics, and Gretchen Whitmer, who reaffirmed her commitment to see her tenure through until the end of her term, has refocused our Bridge of Wills team prediction.

Of the three men on the shortlist, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Governor Tim Walz, each has certain disadvantages and advantages. Kelly’s support for abortion rights and gun reform, along with his background, make him a top-tier candidate, save for the ire he has drawn from organized labor after not supporting the “PRO Act” that would make it easier for Americans to join unions.

Governor Shapiro is seemingly another excellent choice for his massive over performance in Pennsylvania, but his very public hardline support for Israel is shown by his hardline stance against UPenn students protesting Israel. Shapiro’s support for Israel has the potential to turn off many young voters who have been reticent about supporting Democrats after their very public divide over whether to support or condemn Israel.

Governor Tim Walz is a very interesting choice; he has been propped up by organized labor for his anti “right to work” law stances and by progressives because of his free college tuition stances and universal school meal policies. Not just this, Walz, in this last week, singlehandedly created a catchy line of attack against Republicans by just calling them “weird.” Walz has been getting more and more attention, stumping for Harris and joining events like “white dudes for Harris,” where he was a keynote speaker. Walz’s stance over Isreal is much softer than the likes of Shapiro, where, for example, he called voters of the mass uncommitted campaign in Minnesota protesting the Isreal-Palestine War “civically engaged.” Not just this, Walz’s rural background as a small-time geography teacher and football coach helps appeal to demographics Harris fails to appeal to and help further prosecute the case against the increasingly weakest link in the Trump campaign, JD Vance. For this reason, the Bridge of Wills team now believes that Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota will be the VP pick for Kamala Harris.

“Weird”

As mentioned above, Governor Tim Walz launched a whole line of attacks against Trump and other Republicans by simply categorizing their policies and behavior as just “weird.” Republicans have tried to turn this line of attack against Harris by turning it around with Don Jr saying, “You know what’s really weird? Soft on crime politicians like Kamala allowing illegal aliens out of prison so they can violently assault Americans.” This line of attack has attracted attention that the VP choice will be Tim Walz. For this reason, the Bridge of Wills Team also believes that Tim Walz will be the decision.

Donald Trump: Flailing

A Collapsing Lead

Donald Trump’s lead has seemingly evaporated across the battleground states. A round of new Fox News polling made by a bi-partisan effort by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) has shown that the lead for Trump in the critical battleground states has completely evaporated. Minnesota, a state thought to be very competitive, seems gone for the Trump campaign as Harris leads by 6%, 52%-46%. In Wisconsin, Trump leads by just 1%, 50-49%; a similar story repeats itself in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where Harris and Trump are tied. In the national polling, the latest Morning Consult poll and New York Times Siena Poll showed tied races and slight Harris leads by just 1%. What was a national race where Trump consistently led Biden after wave after wave of bad news has shifted to a State of the Race much changed.

Buyers Regret

At first, it seemed JD Vance would provide a strategic advantage to Trump by running up rural margins for Trump in the Rustbelt; polling suggests otherwise. JD Vance has the lowest approval rating of any VP nominee since 1980 following the party’s nominating convention, and not just this, 39% of US adults think that Vance is a good choice overall for Trump’s running mate, according to a YouGov poll. Not just this, JD Vance’s history has come up, and it has proven to be a bane on Trump’s side.

JD Vance has frequently called on adults with no children to be taxed higher than those with children; Vance defends this position on a moralistic ground where he accentuates the “importance of family.” This comment is just one of the slew of bizarre comments that Vance has made. In one extremely odd quip in a speech, he said Democrats think that “Mountain Dew is racist.” Furthermore, comments like calling Democratic leaders “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made, and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too.” It just gets worse and worse for Vance as comments he privately made to a transgender classmate that he “hates the police” and he thinks Trump is just “a bad man” and a “demagogue” exploiting people’s hatred. In private, Donald Trump has had a massive buyer regret with Vance as he reportedly was set to pick North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, but at the intense urging of his sons, Don Jr. and Eric, he acquiesced and selected Vance. With Vance attracting more and more negative publicity towards the Trump campaign, it isn’t hard to see why Trump may have a case of buyers remorse.

Project 2025

Another key aspect of the Democratic campaign is calling out “Project 2025,” a plan drafted by the Heritage Foundation with hard-right policy proposals. This plan, which has attracted the ire of mainstream voters, has been stinging Trump. Just today, Project 2025 director Paul Dans stepped down as the leader of the Project and announced that it would be effectively ending its policy operations. This announcement came after a firestorm erupted by Donald Trump, who tactfully saw the massive impact Project 2025 was having upon his campaign and launched attacks against those he called the “far-right” that have “radical proposals.” Trump campaign associates, with the support of people in the Heritage Foundation, have steered away from Project 2025, denouncing it as having nothing to do with Trump’s campaign and governance. Harris’s campaign, however, has said, “Project 2025 is on the ballot because Donald Trump is on the ballot. This is his agenda, written by his allies, for Donald Trump to inflict on our country.”

Probability Rating Change

In the last State of the Race, we had Trump at 287 and Biden trailing behind at 226 electoral votes. Given the new landscape, we’re changing our probability rating forecast dramatically.

Pennsylvania Lean R–> Tossup

Trump was polling consistent leads in Pennsylvania, with Biden behind in Pennsylvania. Trump is tied or is leading by small margins just a week into Harris’s campaign, and given the efforts and events she is pouring out into the state of Pennsylvania, this rating change is warranted.

Arizona Lean R–> Tossup

Arizona has been a state where Democratic prospects have looked up; in 2022, they elected a Democratic governor and Senator, and in 2020, they elevated Biden to the White House. Harris has begun leading in the latest Morning Consult poll in Arizona, and she appeals to key demographics in ways that Biden could not, as polls have shown.

Georgia Lean R–> Tossup

Given Georgia’s shift in the suburbs towards being more diverse and Harris’s unique appeal to black voters, she’s gaining ground in Georgia. Prior to this, Biden’s campaign had all but abandoned the Sunbelt states, given the extreme apathy that demographic voters had for his candidacy. Harris has a unique appeal and can potentially appeal to a broad swath of the suburban electorate in Georgia and thus help in Georgia.

Nevada Lean R–> Tossup

Harris’s appeal to Hispanic voters in the Sun Belt is aiding her in closing the gap in Nevada, as shown by the latest round of polling and the efforts she’s utilizing to push her support in the Sun Belt. Thus, it is necessary to move Nevada to Tossup.

Non-Probability Rating Change

Minnesota Tilt D–> Likely D

Harris’s recent poll numbers in Minnesota and her likely pick of popular Governor Tim Walz have lifted the Democratic spirits and have given confidence to Democrats that they will win in Minnesota.

Georgia Lean R–> Tilt R

Trump still has the slightest edge in Georgia, but given Harris’s unique appeal and renewed efforts in the Sunbelt. Georgia shifts to being Tilt R. Harris believes she can run up margins in places like Fulton and Gwinnett counties, and given her appeal; there’s a shot she can.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania Lean R–> Slightly Tilt D

The movement we see in the Rust Belt and the clear unpopularity of VP candidate JD Vance in the region has sunk Trump from being a shoo-in to quickly dropping in the polling numbers. Harris’s momentum and her pick of a midwestern Governor will aid her in the Rust Belt and provide a clear edge to her search for the White House.

Arizona Lean R –> Tilt R

The movement in Arizona is clear, and it’s helping Harris. Harris will be aided by having Kari Lake on the ballot, an abortion measure, and given her unique appeal to young Latino voters, she can maneuver in Arizona and win.

Stay tuned for our Senate, Governor, and House ratings this Friday, August 2nd!